We beat them in the league...

This Saturday, Arsenal face Hull at Wembley in one of the more intriguing Cup Finals of recent years. The Gunners are desperate for silverware, while Hull will be looking to win the Cup for the first time in their history. One statistic that has been mentioned this week is that Arsenal have beaten Hull both home and away this season, with a 5-0 aggregate score. So should City fans be preparing for disappointment. Should Arsene be dusting off the trophy cabinet? Or does league form have no impact on the Cup Final?




I began by compiling all the league results between that season's FA Cup finalists from the 1946-47 season, the first year the First Division returned after the Second World War. As we saw last month, quite a few finals have involved lower league clubs, so those seasons are not counted. With that in mind, we end up with 56 seasons. Let's start by looking at the overall record:

So far, so expected. If we looked at most teams' results, Cup finalists or not, we'd expect to see them winning more at home and losing more away. Still, you might notice that the negative results look at little bit bigger than the win columns. In fact, the winners of the Cup have won 40 league meetings with the runners-up in the league season preceding the Final, and lost 44. What about if we combine both home and away matches together, totalling up the aggregate score?

Here the link is even more pronounced. Apparently, "losing" on aggregate over the League season is actually better in terms of your chances of winning the Final. And as the chart below shows, so is conceding more:

All well and good, you might be saying, but we're comparing apples with oranges. The graphs above were calculated by looking at overall wins, draws and losses, rather than pairing the two results in a season. So what about if we look at Cup Finals where one side has beaten the other in both league matches - as Arsenal have done the double of Hull this year.

Perhaps surprisingly, the same rule seems to apply. Almost 60% of the time, the team beaten twice in the league go on to win the big one. And if we look at the four occasions where there has been a 5 goal or greater difference in the aggregate score:

So, does Stoppage Time predict a Hull City win? I'm certainly tempted to say yes, but we should be wary of relying on historical data to discuss what might happen in the future. If we look at just Premier League results, the side doing better in the league does appear to have the advantage when it comes to the Final.

It's tempting to blame the change on the increasing stratification between the top clubs and the rest, and that might well be the answer. Of course, it might just be complete coincidence. But it is worth noting that both Wigan last year and Chelsea in 2012 had lost both league matches against their Final opponents. Is the pattern beginning to reassert itself, or will Arsenal complete a treble over the Tigers?

Stoppage Time prediction: We're going to trust in the questionable power of statistics and plump for Hull by the odd goal in three. 

Agree that Steve Bruce will add a manager's medal to his three FA Cups as a player? Or do you think Arsenal might finally break their trophy drought? Let us know in the comments below, or via Twitter or Facebook