The Europa League - more trouble than it's worth?

On being appointed caretaker manager at Manchester United, one of Ryan Giggs first pronouncements was that United would target Europa League qualification this season. League Cup winners . Steve Bruce, whose Hull side are likely to qualify by simply reaching the Cup Final is also dreaming of Europe.



Yet Roberto Martinez is already asking for "six or seven" extra players to help Everton in the competition next season. Tim Sherwood suggests there might be a benefit in missing out while Southampton don't even want to qualify.

So what's the truth? Does the Europa League provide illustrious opposition, or merely ruin the rest of the season?



At the end of the 2003/04 season, the UEFA Cup (as it was still known) was changed from a straight knockout format to incorporate a "group stage", similar to the Champions League. Teams would be drawn into groups of 5, playing each of their opponents once. Since the competition was rebranded in 2009, that has instead been changed to home and away matches against 3 group opponents. To win the Europa League this season, you would need to play a minimum of 15 matches, although if your team went through the qualifying rounds this could rise to 23 games. 

That's a lot of football, and it must surely have an impact on a domestic season? Well, let's have a look at the statistics. Starting with 2004/05, I have compiled a list of all the English teams who competed in the group stage of the UEFA Cup/Europa League - i.e. those who have suffered from the change. I've then looked at their Premiership point total for their qualifying year (i.e. the season they finished high enough/got far enough in a Cup to qualify) and then the year they competed in Europe.

(I've not included teams such as Wigan who played in a different division the season after they qualified, in order to make the comparison clearer.)

Plotting them onto a graph, we can see the following:

Very few teams who've been involved in the Europa League have bettered their points tally. And it's the same story when it comes to positions:

In fact, only 6 of the 24 English teams involved in the group stages over the last 10 years have done better in the league the following season. And on average, reaching at least the group stage costs a team 4-5 points and between 2 and 3 positions the following season. But it gets worse. How about if we look at how far teams reach in the competition (which also shows the impact of more games as well).

This makes really bad reading for fans of any club who claim they are "going to take the Europa League seriously". The further English sides have reached in the competition, the worse the average effect on their domestic league campaigns. Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham or Manchester United (the four possible teams who could finish 5th and 6th) would by this measure be expected to finish no higher than 7th next season, and were they to reach the quarter-finals (which you would expect from any of the four assuming they take the competition seriously) their most likely Premiership finishing position would be in the bottom half!

Meanwhile, if Hull qualify (either by winning the FA Cup, or regardless of that result if Arsenal finish 4th), their finishing position next season would be close to, if not in, the relegation zone if this trend continues.


So - sure you want European football next season?