In the last post, we looked at the average points per game against the top 6 clubs in the league, and against the other 13. As promised, what I am now going to do is apply those numbers to the remaining games, to see who should win the league if such results truly are the crucial statistic I suggested they might be. Before doing so, I split the figures further, by calculating averages for home and away games against the rest of the top 7 and the other 13 clubs in the Premiership. And so, here, in reverse order, is my Premiership prediction from 7th upwards.
A note here - obviously this is a tongue in cheek look and the maths does not work out perfectly. As such, I've rounded up all decimals of .5 or higher...
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| Image by Steve Collis |
Home games vs top 7 left: 0
Away games vs top 7 left: 1
Home games vs rest left: 3
Away games vs rest left: 2
The maths: (1 x 0.4) + (3 x 2) + (2 x 2.55) = 11.5
With their terrible record against the top six, United are unlikely to get much out of their trip to Everton. They should pick up a couple of wins out of their remaining home games, and will also do well away to Newcastle and Southampton. However, this won't be enough to overall any of the clubs above them. Even if they won every remaining game, this season they will finish with their lowest ever Premiership points tally regardless.
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| Image by Dudesleeper |
Home games vs top 7 left: 0
Away games vs top 7 left: 0
Home games vs rest left: 3
Away games vs rest left: 3
The maths: (3 x 2.2) + (3 x 2.5) = 14.1
Spurs won't be repeating their Europa League campaign on this form - whether or not that is bad news depends from fan to fan! With no games against the top six left, we should expect Tottenham to finish relatively strongly, most likely with four wins and two draws according to our statistical method. It might not move them up the table, but if it happens it will certainly help Tim Sherwood's keep his increasingly tenuous grasp on the manager's job.
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| Image by J Mc Grady |
Home games vs top 7 left: 3
Away games vs top 7 left: 0
Home games vs rest left: 1
Away games vs rest left: 3
The maths: (3 x 1.67) + (1 x 2.59) + (3 x 2) = 13.6
As with United and Spurs, Everton are predicted to finish where they currently lie in the table. While unbeaten at home against the top clubs, draws versus Liverpool and Tottenham mean that we should only expect 5 points from their games against Arsenal, United and City. Even so, 5th would represent an improvement on recent years and constitute their best finish since 2008/09. A likely home win over Palace would help cement this, along with winnable matches against mid-table Southampton and Hull in their final two away games.
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| Image by Sunil 060902 |
Home games vs top 7 left: 0
Away games vs top 7 left: 1
Home games vs rest left: 3
Away games vs rest left: 2
The maths: (1 x 0.6) + (3 x 2.5) + (2 x 2.36) = 12.8
With six games to go, the prediction suggests Arsenal also stay where they are. Their woeful away record against the top seven of 4 defeats in 5 games (conceding 18 goals) suggests they should be happy if they can share the points this weekend against Everton. On their form so far we should probably expect four wins and a defeat in their matches against the teams further below them (Hull away could be a potential banana skin). But if they could draw instead, last time they ended on 78 points they went on to lift the FA Cup (in 2002).
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| Image by Якушкин Иван |
Home games vs top 7 left: 0
Away games vs top 7 left: 1
Home games vs rest left: 3
Away games vs rest left: 2
The maths: (1 x 1.2) + (3 x 2.6) + (2 x 1.72) = 12.44
Jose Mourinho has been saying all along that his team are not title contenders and on this model, he might well be right. Despite excellent home form (as always under Jose) Chelsea have struggled to win away, with only Everton of the top seven picking up less points on the road. This might cost them the title - to be precise, the smart money is on a draw at Anfield and a defeat in Wales at either Swansea or Cardiff. Those dropped points might prove crucial in the title shakeup.
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| Image by Badudoy |
Home games vs top 7 left: 2
Away games vs top 7 left: 0
Home games vs rest left: 1
Away games vs rest left: 3
The maths: (2 x 3) + (1 x 2.58) + (3 x 2.1) = 14.8
Brendan Rogers' side look set to be pipped at the post by just one point to Manchester City. A return of 15 points from a possible 18 would still be impressive work and Liverpool's 100% record at home against the big teams would suggest they will be confident they can beat both Chelsea and City. However, by winning only 60% of their away games against the lower 13 clubs thus far, the average points suggest that Liverpool will slip up somewhere. The games at strugglers Norwich and Crystal Palace could decide the title.
1st Place - Manchester City - 87 points
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| Image by Stuart Grout |
Home games vs top 7 left: 0
Away games vs top 7 left: 2
Home games vs rest left: 5
Away games vs rest left: 1
The maths: (2 x 1.75) + (5 x 3) + (1 x 1.75) = 20.25
So will we see Vincent Kompany lift the Premiership title for a second time? The prediction suggests yes, with City pipping Liverpool by just one point. Even if they were to lose to the Reds at Anfield, as discussed above, they are likely to win their five games in hand at home (on the basis that they have won every league game at the Etihad this season, with the exception of their 1-0 defeat by Chelsea). That's 15 points already, and if as the numbers suggest they can get 5 points from their remaining 3 games, they'll win the league.
However
As I said at the start, this is really a bit of fun and I'm by no means a mathematician. Even if these predictions are close to the truth, there's a major problem here - City could only reach 20 points if they won 6 and drew the other 2 of their remaining games. If they lose to Liverpool, they can't get 5 points from their other two away games (Everton and Palace). So, if we tinker with the predictions just enough to record a defeat against the red half of Merseyside, they should get 1.75 points from the Everton game and 1.75 points from the Palace game - i.e. 3.5 points overall. Bear with me here...
3.5 overall could mean one win, one loss = 3. Or it could mean one win, one draw = 4. In the former case, City end on 85 points and come second. If they can get anything against Liverpool, they are likely to get 87 or more points and win the league. But if they were to lose to Liverpool and pick up a draw and a win in their other away games, we get to 88 points and a title decided on goal difference. Of course, last time that happened it went in City's favour. But this time, the margin is smaller - City's GD being better by just three goals. So, who's up for a playoff game?
We will revisit this post at the end of the season to see just how right (or more likely wrong) I was...
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