Who needs 38 points?

After an exciting weekend at the bottom of the Premiership, it's still no clearer which unlucky three teams will suffer relegation at the end of the season. Fans across the country, from Cardiff to Sunderland to Norwich are desperately trying to calculate how many points their teams might take from their remaining matches. Traditionally, the magic number for safety has been pegged at 38 points, and managers are busy talking about it even now.



But if we look back at the points needed to stay up (assuming no goal difference advantage, so if the 18th team has 38 points we'll say you need 39 to stay in the division) a different picture emerges. The graph below shows the points needed ever since the Premiership dropped to 20 teams in 1995.

So in the 18 seasons since 1995, 38 points would have been enough in two-thirds i.e. 12, or 14 if goal difference kept you up. However, since 2003 when West Ham were famously relegated with 42 points there have been only two seasons when 38 points was not enough, and 40 points would have kept you up every time. So, historically, to be on the safe side we should probably put the safety margin at 40 points.


However, if we look at recent seasons in more detail, even 38 points seems a little high. After all, if we average out the number required for safety over the last ten years, we can see that 36 points might be enough. Again, if for a moment we assume goal difference in our hypothetical team's favour, 36 points would have been enough in 80% of those years. In fact, the average since 1995 is only one point higher at 37.

Of course, all of these methods are based on overall trends, rather than a particular season. So how about trying to calculate the points needed by looking at the actual teams involved this time around?

If we look at the average points per game and extrapolate from there, the final table would unsurprisingly have the current bottom three to go down, as they have got the least points per game so far. However, what it does do is give us a number. If Sunderland, who would be 18th under this system (rather than 20th due to having played less games) continue at their average PPG, they would be relegated with 31 or 32 points (the actual number is 31.67).

So we could say that assuming teams play to their current level, just 33 points might be needed to survive. However, this is unlikely for a multitude of reasons. To give just two, firstly this does not account for not only the unpredictable nature of football but also the unequal run-ins. Norwich play Liverpool, United, Chelsea and Arsenal in the last four games - compare that to Sunderland who play Cardiff, Sunderland and Swansea in their last three home matches. Secondly, form plays a huge part at this time of the season. Some clubs collapse, while others put together an incredible run to escape the drop.

For our final possible points tally, let's have a look at the effect of form at this stage of the season.

This chart shows us the effect of the last 6 games on survival. The red area shows the points the 18th placed club had with 6 games to play, while the blue shows the actual points required that season. As you can see, the position after 32 games has generally been very similar - the club in 18th has had between 26 and 31 points for the last ten years. However, the points needed to stay up have veered between 31 and 40 in the same period.

The biggest difference came in 2007/08. With 32 played, Bolton were sat in 18th with just 26 points. Yet come the end of the season, 37 points were needed to survive without relying on goal difference. Bolton managed to gain these 11 points, and Fulham, 19th at the time on 24 points, gained even more to pip Reading on goal difference. Using this example, were Fulham to hit the same heights this season we could expect them to gain 10 more points from their last five games, setting the required mark for survival at 38.

The smallest difference however, on the far left of the chart, shows that in 2003/04 the mark needed to stay up moved just three points. After 32 matches, Leeds had amassed 31 points, but a dreadful run of just two draws in their final six games saw them relegated with 33. Were the current bottom three to play this badly, we could imagine just 30 points marking safety, which would be the lowest total in Premiership history.

However, the more sensible thing to do is to average out the gap between 18th with 6 to play and 18th at the end of the season. That figure is 6 points, which would mean a final survival total of around 34 points (I'm having to estimate here due to Sunderland's cup runs meaning they've only played 30 games).

Here's a chart summarising everything we've said above.

So, how many points are going to be needed this season?

In my opinion, 36 will be enough. Why? Well, 36 is the average number needed in the past 10 years. It's also, funnily enough, the average of all the different methods we used above. Most of all, looking at the games each side has left, that's just where I see it falling. So, fans of Hull, West Ham and all teams above can relax. Villa, Palace and Swansea are all one win away from safety. For the bottom five however, there's plenty of work left to do...